The world is experiencing a rise in violent conflicts not seen since World War II. At the same time, the European Union (EU) is facing the effects of multiple external shocks on its integration and enlargement processes, its democratic politics, and its foreign policy. Global instability, combined with domestic challenges, puts the EU at a crucial junction in developing its geopolitical role. What are the conflict-related global risks that the EU should prioritise to safeguard its coherence, unity, security and prosperity? What areas of research should academics invest in to generate evidence-based policies for incoming challenges?

To address this question, this project maps and measures the likelihood of conflict-related eventualities and the impact of those scenarios on EU interests. We build this tool on the model of established forecasting instruments such as the Preventive Priorities Survey from the Council for Foreign Relations, or the Global Risks Perception Survey (GRPS) from the World Economic Forum. Our survey focuses on EU interests specifically. The survey solicits input from experts on aspects of European politics and creates databases that serve the interest of both academics and the policy community. The goal is to help prioritize areas of research as well as intervention to protect the EU from destabilising external contingencies. We also aim to use the data collected to compare expert threat perceptions across the Atlantic.

This project is directed by Veronica Anghel and Erik Jones.