Global Risks to the EU

'Global Risks to the EU' (RISK-EU) is a large-scale survey designed to quantify expert perceptions of conflict-related threats to European Union interests. Launched in 2025 by the Robert Schuman Centre for Advanced Studies (RSCAS) at the European University Institute (EUI), in collaboration with the European Union Institute for Security Studies (EUISS), the Trans European Policy Studies Association (TEPSA), and the European Initiative for Security Studies (EISS), 'Global Risks to the EU' constitutes the first continent-wide dataset on global risk perceptions among European experts. The survey will be launched yearly. Respondents rank the likelihood and expected impact of 30 predefined risks affecting EU coherence, unity, security, and prosperity. By operationalising risk as a measurable construct and applying systematic scoring methods, this initiative aims to generate strategic foresight for European foreign policy.

The methodological design of 'Global Risks to the EU' draws inspiration from the 'Preventive Priorities Survey', an annual instrument implemented by the Council on Foreign Relations in the United States since 2008. Data collection was conducted drawing upon the networks associated with the EUI, EUISS, TEPSA, and the EISS. The authors are also grateful to the European Consortium for Political Research (ECPR) Standing Group on the European Union for distributing the survey.

Veronica Anghel leads the 'Global Risks to the EU' (RISK-EU) project at the Robert Schuman Centre of the European University Institute, where she is also a co-director of the European Governance and Politics Programme.

Communication: Martina Popova
Graphic design: Giorgio Giamberini, Irene Oddo
Web development: Stefano Brocchi, Bruno Zanotto

1. Defining risks to EU interests

The project's academic team defines the EU's interests as "EU coherence, unity, security, and prosperity." Each year, they identify the 30 most relevant potential risks to these interests for the following year through a three-stage process.

First, they conduct a horizon-scanning exercise to identify conflict-related threats to EU interests. This process builds on the methodology and risk items assessed in the previous year and is coordinated with the US-based team behind the "Preventive Priorities Survey" (Council on Foreign Relations, ongoing since 2008), which evaluates global risks to US interests.

Second, the team refines the selection of risks to better reflect the European Union's current circumstances and the missions and operations of the European Union External Action Service (EEAS). This step involves removing risks deemed less impactful on EU interests while introducing others considered more relevant. The risks are not selected solely based on their likelihood or frequency; instead, they are chosen because their potential consequences are significant enough to warrant attention, even if some scenarios have a lower probability of occurrence.

Third, the team solicits feedback from foreign policy experts, drawing on the networks of the Robert Schuman Centre at the European University Institute and partner institutions such as the European Union Institute for Security Studies (EUISS), the Trans European Policy Studies Association (TEPSA), and the European Initiative for Security Studies (EISS). The project team integrates these insights into the final survey script to enhance its comprehensiveness and relevance.

2. Launching the survey

Principal investigators draft the survey script, which includes socio-demographic questions and sample quality control checks. They then submit the updated survey script for yearly ethics clearance. In November, the EUISS, TEPSA, and EISS distribute the survey within their expert communities. The survey remains open until the target sample of complete responses is exceeded. Respondents who are neither EU citizens nor EU residents are subsequently screened out.

3. Ranking and analysis

The project team collects responses using a 5-point Likert scale. The survey results are analysed with a standard 5-point Risk Assessment Matrix, categorizing risks as "high," "moderate," or "remote." The 30 risks examined are intentionally selected because they represent significant and realistic threats to the EU. Consequently, their impact scores are expected to be higher on average than their likelihood scores.

If risks with "low" impact and "low" likelihood evaluations are identified, they are classified under the residual category of "low risks". For transparency and replication purposes, the data is published in the EUI Cadmus Repository.

Risk Assessment Matrix

The Robert Schuman Centre for Advanced Studies

The Robert Schuman Centre for Advanced Studies (RSCAS) at the European University Institute (EUI) in Florence is a multidisciplinary research institute focused on European integration and global governance. The RSCAS conducts policy-relevant research on topics such as governance, migration, climate policy, and international cooperation. It fosters dialogue between academics, policymakers, and practitioners through research projects, conferences, and training programs, aiming to bridge the gap between scholarship and policymaking while addressing both European and global challenges. For further information about RSCAS, visit the website.

The European Governance and Politics Programme (EGPP), a flagship programme of the Schuman Centre, is an international hub of high-quality research and reflection on Europe and the European Union. For more information about the EGPP, visit the website.

The European Union Institute for Security Studies

The European Union Institute for Security Studies (EUISS), established in 2002 and headquartered in Paris, is the EU's agency for foreign, security, and defence policy analysis. It supports the Common Foreign and Security Policy (CFSP) and Common Security and Defence Policy (CSDP) by providing independent research, strategic foresight, and policy-relevant analysis. Through publications, conferences, and workshops, the EUISS addresses global security challenges, including geopolitical shifts, cyber threats, terrorism, and climate security, aiding EU institutions and member states in informed policymaking and strategic planning. For further information about the EUISS, visit the website.

The Trans European Policy Studies Association (TEPSA)

The Trans European Policy Studies Association (TEPSA) is the oldest network of research institutes in Europe, established in 1974. Based in Brussels, it connects leading European policy institutes to promote research, analysis, and debate on European integration and policies. TEPSA provides expert advice to EU institutions, organizes conferences, and publishes policy papers to foster informed decision-making. Its activities focus on EU governance, foreign affairs, and economic policies, enhancing dialogue between policymakers, academics, and citizens across Europe. For further information about TEPSA, visit the website.

The European Initiative for Security Studies

The European Initiative for Security Studies (EISS) is a network of academic institutions and scholars dedicated to advancing research and dialogue on European security. It serves as the largest and most diverse gathering of scholars and practitioners focused on security studies across Europe. EISS promotes collaboration, intellectual exchange, and policy-relevant research on topics such as defence policy, military strategy, and regional security dynamics. Through annual conferences and academic workshops, it fosters cross-national dialogue and enhances understanding of contemporary security challenges. For further information about the EISS, visit the website.